Comprehensive assessment of China's water resources security based on AHP-CRITIC and research on influencing factors
Ziqin Guo
School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics，Anhui University of Finance & Economics，Bengbu 233030，China
DOI: https://doi.org/10.59429/jvm.v1i1.8267
Keywords: water security; AHP-CRITIC; ARIMA model; obstacle analysis
Abstract
In order to understand the level of China's water security, this paper selects 18 indicators from the aspects of natural endowment, economy, society and ecological environment to construct China's water resources security evaluation system. Firstly, the evaluation of China's water resource security from 2005 to 2020 shows that China's water resources were in a relatively dangerous state from 2005 to 2011, and the obstacles affecting water resource security were low economic development level and low natural endowment of water resources. After 2011, the level of water security gradually improved, and the transition to a relatively safe state was changed to a relatively safe state, and the obstacles at this stage were the level of social development and ecological environment. Secondly, the ARIMA (0, 1, 4) model is used to predict China's water security level from 2021 to 2025, and the results show that China's water security score increases year by year from 2021 to 2025. Finally, reasonable policy suggestions are put forward to further improve the level of China's water resources security.
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