New trends in earthquake prediction – A case study of AI performance
Boyko Ranguelov
Centre of Natural Sciences, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Sofia, 1421, Bulgaria Space Research and Technology Institute,Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 1113, Bulgaria
Keywords: earthquake prediction; AI; comparative case studies
Abstract
The short term earthquake prediction problem is considered not solved yet. The new trends on this topic are related to the intrusion of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) with believes it can help significantly to the solution. The case study of an experiment in China during 2023 and published in BSSA (https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/ bssa/articleabstract/113/6/2461/627949/Earthquake-Forecasting-Using-Big-Data.) deals with the results critically assessed of the achievements in time, distance and magnitude of forthcoming earthquakes in a test area in China. Some other cases are also presented to help the reader to enter the last published development in the mass media of the topic and some speculations on it. The conclusions are that the proclaimed unprecedented accuracy of predicted parameters of forthcoming seismic events is strongly overestimated.
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