Probe - Accounting, Auditing and Taxation

Econometric study on the relationship between employment rate changes and GDP in China

Sun Qiong

Guangzhou HuaShang College Artificial Intelligence College, Guangdong, Gunangzhou

DOI: https://doi.org/10.59429/paat.v7i3.11214

Keywords: employment rate; GDP; cointegration analysis; VAR model; dynamic effect

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Abstract

Using 2000–2023 Chinese macro data, this study analyzes the employment–GDP nexus with cointegration, VAR, and an error-correction model. It finds a significant long-run equilibrium and positive, multi-period impulse responses from GDP growth to employment. A rising tertiary-industry share persistently boosts employment, while short-run ECM terms show employment-rate changes strongly adjust GDP fluctuations. Robustness checks across samples and variable sets confirm stability. Policy advice: optimize industrial structure, upgrade workforce skills, maintain stable macro policy, and strengthen statistical monitoring—Providing a quantitative basis for coordinated employment–growth development.

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