An HP filter-based study on water pollution in the Shandong section of the Yellow River Basin
Qingyan Cao
Business School, Shandong University of Technology
Ziyu Hou
Business School, Shandong University of Technology
DOI: https://doi.org/10.59429/pest.v7i2.10380
Keywords: Shandong section of the Yellow River Basin; Chemical oxygen demand (COD); Gross domestic product (GDP)
Abstract
This study analyzes economic and environmental pollution data from 2002 to 2022 in the Shandong section of the Yellow River Basin using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter method. It decomposes regional GDP and chemical oxygen demand (COD) emissions into long-term trends and short-term fluctuations, aiming to explore the synergistic mechanism between economic development and water pollution control. The results show that Shandong’s secondary industry has long dominated economic growth (peaking at 49.9% of GDP in 2006), but industrialization has exacerbated ecological pressure (Yellow River water accounts for 31.56% of the province’s total supply). Through policy regulation (e. g., closure of high-pollution enterprises, wetland restoration), COD emissions decreased by 33.45% compared to 2015, although structural pollution remains. HP filtering reveals a three-phase pattern in the COD/GDP ratio: 2002–2010 (declining with volatility due to initial industrial adjustments and environmental policies), 2010–2015 (slower decline due to cross-provincial pollution and governance bottlenecks), and 2015–2022 (stabilization driven by intensified measures such as the “Water Ten Plan”). The study suggests promoting industrial upgrading (e. g., high-end manufacturing), establishing ecological compensation mechanisms (e. g., inter-provincial “gambling agreements”), and differentiated supervision (e. g., targeting high-risk areas like Dezhou) to achieve dynamic balance between environment and economy. This provides policy references for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.
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